Meeting organized by Copenhagen Statistical Network, April 24, 2008.

Statistical methods in climate research

Thursday, April 24, 2008 at H.C. Ørsted Instituttet

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10:00 - 10:30 Peter Ditlevsen (NBI): Problems in climate research

10:30 - 10:45 Discussion

10:45 - 11:00 Torben Schmith (DMI): Semi-empirical estimation of the climate sensitivity

11:00 - 11:15 Peter Thejll (DMI): Statistical analysis of proxy data

11:15 - 11:30 Discussion

11:30 - 12:00 Per Hedegaard: Statistical analysis of the Dansager-Oeschger events.

12:00 - 12:15 Discussion

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12:15 - 13:15 Lunch

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13:15 - 13:45 Søren Johansen (HCØ): The cointegrated VAR model

13:45 - 14:15 Katarina Juselius (ØI): Cointegration analysis of ice core data

14:15 - 14:30 Discussion

Torben Schmith: Semi-empirical estimation of the climate sensitivity: slides.

Peter Thejll: Statistical analysis of proxy data: slides.

Per Hedegaard: Statistical analysis of the Dansager-Oeschger events: slides.

Søren Johansen: The cointegrated VAR model: slides.

P.D. Ditlevsen (1999): Observation of alpha-stable noise induced millennial climate changes from an ice-core record, Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 1441-1444.

P.D. Ditlevsen, H. Svensmark and S. Johnsen (1996): Contrasting atmosheric and climate dynamics of the last-glacial and Holocene periods, Letters to Nature, 379: 810-812.

**About periodicity or random distribution of Dansager-Oeschger events:**

P.D. Ditlevsen, M.S. Kristensen and K.K. Andersen (2005): The recurrence time of Dansgaard-Oeschger events and limits on the possible periodic component, Journal of Climate, 18: 2594-2603.

P.D. Ditlevsen, K.K. Andersen and A. Svensson (2007): The DO-climate events are probably noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle, Climate of the past, 3: 129-134.

**Application of cointegration to climate data:**

K. Juselius (2007): Cointegration analysis of climate change: an exposistion.

R.K. Kaufmann and D.I. Stern (2002): Cointegration analysis of hemispheric temperature relations, Journal of Geophysical Research, 107.

**About cointegration:**

S. Johansen: Correlation, regression, and cointegration of nonstationary economic time series.

S. Johansen (2004): Cointegration: an overview.

**About Bayesian priors:**

O. Ditlevsen (2007): Bayesian comparison of alternative distribution models for the same data.

ESF Workshop on Econometric methods in Climate Research, Frascati, Italy, September, 2007

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susanne@math.ku.dk